India's Red Sea Imperative: Securing Bab el-Mandeb and the Future of Maritime Trade
With new threats to the critical Bab el-Mandeb strait, India faces a crucial test of its role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean. We explain the stakes, the history, and the path forward.
Context: The 2024 Crisis and a Looming Threat
To grasp the strategic challenge facing India, one must understand the events of late 2023 and early 2024, which serve as a blueprint for potential future disruptions. The crisis began in October 2023 when the Yemen-based Ansarallah group, or Houthis, initiated attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. These attacks targeted a critical chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a narrow channel connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden whose name translates to the "Gate of Tears." In response, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian in December 2023, a multinational security initiative. The Indian Navy, while not formally joining the coalition, deployed its own assets, demonstrating its commitment to maritime security under its SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine, articulated in 2015. The Indian Navy's destroyer INS Visakhapatnam notably rescued the crew of a missile-stricken tanker on January 26-27, 2024. The crisis highlighted the power of non-state actors and the risk aversion of P&I (Protection and Indemnity) Clubs—mutual insurance associations covering 90% of global shipping—which can paralyze trade by withdrawing cover or hiking premiums. This recent history informs the analysis of a plausible future flare-up.
What is the projected threat to maritime trade?
The analysis of India's imperative is based on a projected crisis scenario for mid-2026, where the Houthi group renews its threat to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb. In this scenario, a Houthi-declared “maritime embargo” on a regional power like Saudi Arabia, potentially at Iran's behest, would reignite the crisis. The severity of such a threat would be amplified if it coincided with ongoing tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, creating a dual-chokepoint challenge for global trade. The primary concern, as evidenced by the 2023-24 crisis, is the immediate reaction of the global shipping and insurance industry. According to industry reports from that period, the 12 major P&I clubs are highly risk-averse. A renewed threat could again lead them to raise war risk premiums exorbitantly or deny cover altogether, forcing container ships and oil tankers onto the longer, costlier route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.
Why is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait critical for India?
The Bab el-Mandeb is an indispensable artery for India's economy, serving as the gateway to the Suez Canal for trade with Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America. An analysis by the Takshashila Institution estimates that approximately one-third of India's foreign trade, valued at over $200 billion annually, transits through this region. Any disruption has a multi-pronged impact. First, it directly impedes trade flows. Between November 2023 and March 2024, at least 2,000 ships were forced to bypass the Suez Canal, a diversion that adds 10-14 days and over $1 million in fuel costs per voyage for a large container vessel. This delays critical imports for India's manufacturing sector and makes Indian exports less competitive. Second, it affects India's energy security, as a significant portion of crude oil imports, including discounted Russian oil destined for western Indian ports, uses this route. Third, it impacts the welfare of Indian seafarers, who constitute a large portion of the global maritime workforce.
How would a future crisis differ from the 2023-24 events?
While the primary actors remain the same, the geopolitical landscape is projected to be more complex, hindering a coordinated international response. The United States, which led Operation Prosperity Guardian, may have its strategic focus diverted by escalating tensions with Iran or other global commitments, limiting its capacity to lead another large-scale maritime operation. The United Nations Security Council, often politically divided, would likely struggle to achieve consensus for a robust, UN-mandated force, unlike the relatively swift adoption of Resolution 2722 in January 2024. During the previous crisis, New Delhi successfully used its diplomatic channels with Tehran to help secure India-bound vessels. However, analysts suggest that evolving India-Iran ties, strained by other regional developments, could limit the future effectiveness of this channel. Furthermore, China is expected to pursue a unilateral approach, securing passage for its own vessels via direct arrangements rather than contributing to a global commons security effort, leaving a potential security vacuum.
What is the proposed path forward for India?
The emerging consensus among strategic analysts, including Raja Karthikeya of the Takshashila Institution, is for India to adopt a proactive posture by leading a theatre-specific “Trade Protection Task Force.” This proposal envisions a 'minilateral' coalition with France and Japan, two maritime powers with substantial interests and existing military infrastructure in the region. Both nations maintain naval bases in Djibouti, strategically located at the strait, which can provide vital logistical support. The Indian, French, and Japanese navies have a foundation of interoperability from joint exercises like the La Pérouse series. This approach differs from broader coalitions like the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) by having a more focused, non-hegemonic leadership structure and a singular mandate: the protection of commercial shipping. The Indian Navy's Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) in Gurugram, established in 2018, is positioned to serve as the intelligence and information-sharing hub for such a task force.
Why This Matters Now
The renewed threat to the Bab el-Mandeb, even as a plausible future scenario, presents an immediate challenge to India's economic security and its foreign policy aspirations. A simultaneous disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would place two of India's most vital energy and trade lifelines in jeopardy. The stability of these sea lanes is directly linked to India's domestic inflation, industrial output, and energy supply. A failure to secure these routes could trigger severe economic disruption at a critical point in India's growth. The situation compels New Delhi to evolve beyond its traditional role as a security contributor in its immediate neighbourhood and assume leadership in the wider Indian Ocean theatre, a direct application of its SAGAR doctrine.
Likely Trajectory
In the next 1-5 years, India is likely to accelerate its transition towards becoming a 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region. The immediate future will likely see intense diplomatic negotiations to formalize a trilateral naval framework with France and Japan, with joint operational patrols as a potential outcome by 2027. The success of this initiative will depend on securing the political and logistical support of key littoral states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, whose economies are directly threatened. This will necessitate an increased allocation in India's defence budget towards naval assets suited for extended deployments, such as the Visakhapatnam-class destroyers and long-range surveillance drones. The Indian Navy's Maritime Capability Perspective Plan, which aims for a 175-ship fleet by 2035, will likely see accelerated timelines for these key acquisitions.
Governance and Policy Implications
This crisis serves as a crucial test for India's foreign policy of 'strategic autonomy.' By leading a security coalition independent of major power blocs, India can demonstrate its capacity to build issue-based, 'multi-aligned' alliances. This authority is constitutionally grounded in the Union List of the Seventh Schedule, which grants the central government exclusive powers over defence (Entry 2) and foreign affairs (Entry 10). Furthermore, such an initiative aligns with Article 51 of the Constitution, which directs the state to promote international peace and security. Domestically, it will compel tighter integration between the Ministries of External Affairs, Defence, and Commerce to create a cohesive maritime strategy. Ultimately, India's response to the Bab el-Mandeb challenge will be a defining statement of its willingness to underwrite stability in the Indo-Pacific, shaping its global standing for decades.